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Council On Hemispheric Affairs

Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the
Western Hemisphere

Memorandum to the Press 05.40


Friday, 8 April 2005


Hemispheric Checkmate:
Chile’s Insulza Likely to Become
New OAS Secretary-General


• Monday, April 11 has been declared the official date for an
“extraordinary” session of the General Assembly of the Organization of
American States (OAS) to elect a new secretary-general.

• José Miguel Insulza, current Chilean minister of the interior, is
the favorite of three candidates aspiring for the OAS post. The other
contenders are former president of El Salvador, Francisco Flores, and
Mexico’s minister of foreign affairs, Luis Ernesto Derbez—both
unlikely contenders at this point.

• Questions remain about the qualifications of each candidate,
including Insulza, given his recent trip to Haiti and the solicitude
he has shown Chile’s former, General Augusto Pinochet.

• Flores’ likely defeat would set an important precedent -as the
U.S.’s preferetti for the OAS’ top office, it would represent a blow
to Washington’s prestige.

• A Caribbean Community (CARICOM) meeting recently held in Panamaribo,
Suriname (February 16-17), ended with the majority of Caribbean
leaders declaring their support for Insulza.


In the hemispheric chess game of electing a new OAS secretary-general,
the three governments that have nominated candidates unexpectedly
called for an “extraordinary” meeting of the OAS’ General Assembly.
It had been presumed that a new secretary-general would be elected at
the General Assembly’s next regular meeting, scheduled for June in
Fort Lauderdale, Florida. However, after a meeting among the OAS
ambassadors of the governments of the three aspiring candidates, April
11 was chosen as the date to elect a new OAS head. Of the three
contenders, José Miguel Insulza, Chile’s minister of the interior, is
far and away the frontrunner for the post. While Chilean President
Ricardo Lagos would likely view Insulza’s election as a victory for his
administration, others would be disappointed with his selection.

José Miguel Insulza
Insulza is a socialist who gained considerable fame throughout Latin
America for his outspoken criticism of the U.S-led war in Iraq. He has
obtained the support of regional powerhouses Argentina and Brazil, as
well as Ecuador, Uruguay (from newly elected president Tabaré Vázquez)
and Venezuela. However, some analysts suggest that Insulza’s broad
support stems more from those countries’ national interests rather
than from their belief that Insulza is the right man for the job.
There are several incidents that support this realpolitik
interpretation. While Insulza gained wide respect by openly opposing
the war in Iraq, he recently visited Haiti, a nation which in February
2004, with U.S. support, deposed its constitutionally elected president
and imposed a controversial interim government headed by Prime
Minister Gerard Latortue. Notwithstanding Latortue’s dubious
credentials, Insulza visited Port-au-Prince to lobby him for Haiti’s
support in the OAS race. Apparently Insulza did not see the
contradiction of seeking the aid of an unlawful government in Haiti
while touring other Caribbean states proclaiming his intentions to
defend democracy.

If the allegations regarding Insulza’s protective attitude toward
former dictator Augusto Pinochet prove to be true, this would make the
minister someone of questionable integrity. The Chilean-based Ethics
Commission Against Torture reported that Insulza used his influence to
assure that the former dictator retained immunity to avoid being tried
for crimes against humanity by other countries. The report explains
that it was Insulza, while serving as foreign affairs minister, who
worked overtime to free Pinochet from his house detention in Great
Britain five years ago. Insulza cited the former dictator’s declining
health promising that, if he was allowed to return to Chile, he would
be tried. When the trial proceeded, however, Pinochet initially was not
accused of human rights violations - including the “disappearances” of
several thousand Chileans but of tax evasion. It is unclear why
Insulza would support Pinochet, given the fact that he himself was in
exile during Pinochet’s military dictatorship.

Germán F. Westphal, a professor of Modern Languages & Linguistics at
the University of Maryland, has brought up another disturbing point. He
reported how Insulza had been reluctant to help find Boris Weisfeiler,
a U.S. citizen of Russian origin who vanished while on a hiking trip
near the border between Chile and Argentina in early January, 1985.
Westphal explains that “according to some declassified U.S. documents
and an informant's report, Weisfeiler was detained by Pinochet's
soldiers under the assumption that he was a Russian or Jewish ‘spy’ and
taken to the notorious German center called Colonia Dignidad [then run
by an indicted child molester Paul Schaeffer] […] Weisfeiler has been
missing ever since.” Dr. Westphal emphasized that “Minister José M.
Insulza has been completely oblivious to the case and ignored it with
absolute callousness, without even taking into consideration the
international dimension […] As a point of international reference, it
is possible to say that the Vietnam authorities have been more
cooperative, sensitive and forthcoming with respect to the U.S.
soldiers missing in action than Minister Insulza has been in connection
to Boris Weisfeiler's case.”

The Rest of the Field
Francisco Flores, correctly viewed as a political lightweight,
repeatedly has been accused of tolerating corruption and human rights
violations while president of El Salvador (1999-2004), particularly
regarding his Mano Dura policy to crack down on street gangs.
Furthermore, the former president is currently facing accusations of
bank fraud (in the banks Crédito Inmobilario SA and CREDICLUB), money
laundering and stealing funds from the National Administration of
Sewers. Despite this tarnished record, Flores has won the backing of
Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Nicaragua and the United States. It would be a major blow to Washington
if he is not elected. Would the U.S. be inclined to continue paying 60
percent of the OAS’ budget as patiently as before?

Ernesto Derbez, the Mexican minister of foreign affairs, was a
relatively late addition to the race. Originally Derbez intended to run
for Mexico’s presidency in 2006 but President Vicente Fox wants his
protégé, Minister of Interior Santiago Creel, to be his successor. As a
consolation prize, Derbez was persuaded to enter the OAS race. Up until
now, Derbez has gained the support of Belize, Bolivia, Canada, Honduras
and the Caribbean islands of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The
Mexican media speculates that if Derbez is defeated in the OAS race, he
may set his sights on another post that soon may become vacant:
president of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Suriname, CARICOM and Albert Randim
In the last two months, the governments of the three secretary-general
candidates sent requests to Suriname for support of their respective
nominees. In addition, Chilean President Lagos visited the region in
late February, around the time of a CARICOM summit of heads of state.
If anything, such attention demonstrated the torrid competition for
votes in the OAS race. Suriname, realistically, not the first nation
one thinks of when it comes to being a strategic player in hemispheric
relations, yet it has become invaluable for the simple reason that its
vote conceivably could tilt the scale in favor of any of the
candidates. Despite the mandatory proclamations the candidates now
might make about Suriname’s temporary importance, the fact remains that
none of the three governments have a permanent embassy in Paramaribo.
Mexico’s embassy in Trinidad & Tobago services affairs relating to
Suriname, as does Chile’s embassy in Brazil, and El Salvador’s embassy
in Venezuela.

The sudden interest in Suriname stems from two new facts on the table.
First, Suriname’s President Ronald Venetiaan is also the chair of
CARICOM, which means that he holds significant influence with the other
members of that body. Second, Suriname has nominated a candidate for
the position of OAS assistant secretary-general, Ambassador Albert
Randim. Not surprisingly, the governments of each of the candidates
energetically have declared their support for him.

CARICOM’s 16th Inter-Sessional Meeting of the Conference of Heads of
Government held February 16-17 in Paramaribo, concluded with at least
eight member states signaling their support for Insulza. Guyana’s
president is reported to be one of the region’s most aggressive
supporters of the Chilean candidate; however, this still might not be
enough to guarantee Insulza the necessary votes of this bloc. Moreover,
in order to get Haiti’s vote for the OAS contest, Insulza’s pandering
to Latortue miffed several Caribbean leaders.

Present Challenges
If elected secretary-general, Insulza will face several immediate
challenges. The continent is plagued with domestic turmoil that
ideally the OAS should be involved with in a very committed way. The
organization has been only timidly involved in the demilitarization of
Colombia’s paramilitaries; the next secretary-general must be more
directly engaged in the process. In addition, governmental crises in
Ecuador and Bolivia have jeopardized their president’s tenure and
could spark turmoil throughout the Andes. Furthermore, Insulza may
have to be prepared to go against his own nation’s interests to
promote the hemispheric good by addressing the access to the sea
dispute between Bolivia and Chile as well as the demands by Chile’s
indigenous Mapuches for greater autonomy.

Furthermore, in light of the sudden importance with which Suriname is
being treated, will the next OAS head address the recent demands made
by the opposition, National Democratic Party (NDP), which accused the
U.S. of interfering in the country’s electoral process scheduled for
May 25? The State Department, through the U.S. Embassy in Suriname,
has declared that the U.S. will sever relations with this nation if
former dictator and NDP leader Desi Bouterse (1980-87) becomes the
next president. The NDP has complained to CARICOM and the OAS about
Washington’s influence on its national affairs.

In his speech to the OAS’s Permanent Council last February, Insulza
explained that “The security situation that we face in the hemisphere
has changed. We face multidimensional challenges like terrorism […] We
must improve the existent regional mechanisms such as the
Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD) and the
Inter-American Committee Against Terrorism (CICTE).” It is important
to mention that in his assessment, Insulza’s omission of sensitive
issues could cost him votes; for example, he said nothing about the
Inter-American Defense Board (IADB).

The Never-ending Story
As is customary, a candidate will be elected to the OAS not because of
his program or his ideals, but because of narrowly defined national
interests. Venezuela, for example, is backing Derbez instead of Flores
because the latter was one of the few Latin American leaders to back
the April 2002 coup against President Hugo Chávez. Likewise, Bolivia
will not support Insulza because of the border and sea access dispute
with Chile. Bolivia’s decision to back Derbez appears to be little
more than an attempt to promote ties between La Paz and Mexico City.
Any geopolitical analysis of the situation would show that it is far
more beneficial for Bolivia to improve economic and political
relations with Mexico than with a small nation like El Salvador
(Bolivia does not even have an embassy in El Salvador). An additional
factor is Bolivia’s huge natural gas reserves, some of which La Paz
has arranged to export to Mexico.

While Insulza appears to be the frontrunner, there still may be time
for a last minute surprise like in the 1994 elections, since the
voting is confidential (a nation can publicly declare its support for
one candidate and vote for another). The Lagos administration and
Insulza would be wise to keep this in mind before declaring an early
victory.

This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Fellow Alex Sanchez.

April 8, 2005


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